As we stand today -- there are six teams between us and a TOP TEN finish -- which would guarantee us a New Year's Six Bowl Game.
The odds are definitely against us -- but that's okay. Here's a "Notre Dame view" of the resumes of the teams ahead of us in the College Football Playoff Rankings -- and, what needs to happen this weekend in college football for our Fighting Irish to move up:
#10 PENN STATE:
- 9-2 on the season
- Signature win: #13 Michigan
- Losses to: #1 Ohio State and #8 Minnesota
- Games against FBS opponents: 10 -- played one FCS team
- Wins over FBS teams with 8+ wins: 2
- No chance of losing final game --- they play Rutgers
#11 FLORIDA:
- 9-2 on the season
- Signature win: #15 Auburn
- Losses to: #2 LSU and #4 Georgia
- Games against FBS opponents: 9 -- played two FCS teams
- Wins over FBS teams with 8+ wins: 1
- They play Florida State -- Gators favored by 17.5 points
#12 WISCONSIN:
- 9-2 on the season
- Signature win: #13 Michigan
- Losses to: Illinois and #1 Ohio State
- Games against FBS opponents: 11
- Wins over FBS teams with 8+ wins: 2
- They play at #8 Minnesota -- Wisconsin favored by 2.5 points
#13 MICHIGAN:
- 9-2 on the season
- Signature win: #16 Notre Dame
- Losses to: #12 Wisconsin and #10 Penn State
- Games against FBS opponents: 11
- Wins over FBS teams with 8+ wins: 2
- They play Ohio State -- Buckeyes favored by 9 points
#14 OREGON:
- 9-2 on the season
- Signature win: #22 USC
- Losses to: #15 Auburn and Arizona State
- Games against FBS opponents: 10 -- played one FCS team
- Wins over FBS teams with 8+ wins: 1
- They play Oregon State -- Ducks favored by 19.5 points
#15 AUBURN:
- 8-3 on the season
- Signature win: #14 Oregon
- Losses to: #11 Florida, #2 LSU and #4 Georgia
- Games against FBS opponents: 10 -- played on FCS team
- Wins over FBS teams with 8+ wins: 1
- They play #5 Alabama -- Bama favored by 3.5 points
#16 NOTRE DAME:
- 9-2 on the season
- Signature win: #22 USC
- Losses to: #4 Georgia and #13 Michigan
- Games against FBS opponents: 11
- Wins over FBS teams with 8+ wins: 4
- We play at Stanford -- Irish favored by 14 points
MY OBSERVATION:
If you look at these aforementioned facts -- I believe Notre Dame should be ranked at the very least #14 -- ahead of Oregon and Auburn;
- Oregon has a bad loss to Arizona State (6-5) and only one win over a FBS team with 8+ wins this season
- Auburn has three losses -- and only one win over a FBS team with 8+ wins this season
- Notre Dame has four wins over FBS teams with 8+ wins this season
Now, let's assume that Notre Dame clobbers Stanford -- and the following happens on Saturday:
- Ohio State beats Michigan -- does a 10-2 Notre Dame jump the 9-3 Wolverines?
- Minnesota upsets Wisconsin -- does a 10-2 Notre Dame jump the 9-3 Badgers?
- Alabama beats Auburn -- does a 10-2 Notre Dame jump the 8-4 Tigers?
It looks like our highest final ranking would be #13 -- which does not look like it will get us into a New Year's Six Bowl.
