With Stanford and Utah's loss this evening -- the PAC 12 is done when it comes to sending a team to the College Football Playoff -- it robs Notre Dame of a season ending signature win -- and, it opens the door for an undefeated Oklahoma State to jump ND into the top Playoff if they remain that way.
Here's where I see things with two weeks left in the regular season for the top teams:
These THREE PLAYOFF SPOTS are a given -- in my opinion:
- ACC Champ: CFB Playoff spot if it's Clemson or North Carolina
- Big Ten Champ: CFB Playoff spot if it's Ohio State, Michigan State or Iowa
- SEC Champ: Alabama
So, the fourth team in the PLAYOFF will come down to Notre Dame -- if they win their next two games -- OR, one of these two teams from the Big XII:
- Oklahoma State -- if they win both, they're in / ND is out
- vs. Baylor
- vs. Oklahoma
- Oklahoma -- if they win both -- it will come down to (see analysis below)
- vs. TCU
- @ Oklahoma State
If Oklahoma and Notre Dame both end up 11 - 1 on the season, it will come down to a College Football Playoff Committee vote against teams with these resumes:
- Wins over ranked teams: (3) Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma State
- Opponent's WIN/LOSS Record as of 11/14/15: 63 - 53
- Strength of Schedule Rank: #21
- Common opponent: Lost to Texas 24 - 17
- Record of team that beat them as of 11/14/15: 4 - 6
- Wins over ranked teams: (5) USC, Navy, Temple, Pitt and Stanford
- Opponent's WIN/LOSS Record as of 11/14/15: 67 - 53
- Strength of Schedule Rank: #5
- Common opponent: Beat Texas 38 - 3
- Record of team that beat them as of 11/14/15: 10 - 0
So -- what does this all mean:
- We must win both of our games.
- Oklahoma State needs to lose one of their remaining games.
- If both happen -- WE ARE IN THE PLAYOFF!